A new Congress in Washington: What changes for the Caribbean?

By Sir Ronald Sanders

The American electorate has changed the political balance in Washington. In the midterm elections of 3 November, Democrats won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. They will assume control when the new Congress takes office in January 2027.

For the Caribbean, the result raises an important question: how much will a change in Congress alter the policies affecting our security, economies and people?

The answer is that the administration’s principal foreign-policy priorities are unlikely to change, although Congress can influence how they are pursued.

Continuity alongside change

Congress legislates, appropriates funds and conducts oversight. The Senate also considers and confirms many senior presidential appointments. The new majorities will therefore influence legislation, expenditure and scrutiny of the administration.

However, president Trump will continue to direct the executive branch and conduct foreign relations, with substantial authority over diplomatic engagement, immigration enforcement and aspects of trade policy. He can also issue executive orders without congressional approval, provided they rest on his constitutional powers or authority granted by existing law. He can veto legislation, and overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in each chamber – not easy to achieve.

Constraints on a president’s domestic legislative programme do not necessarily produce a corresponding reduction in foreign-policy activity. The executive retains considerable capacity to act abroad, although congressional funding decisions and statutory limits remain consequential.

It would therefore be premature to interpret the election as a change in the administration’s approach to Latin America and the Caribbean.

The administration’s “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine emphasises American strategic interests in the Western Hemisphere. Its priorities include migration, narcotics trafficking, access to strategically important locations and limiting the influence of competing powers. There is little reason to expect those priorities to disappear because congressional control has changed.

For Caribbean countries, the implications extend beyond traditional diplomacy. Ports, energy infrastructure, telecommunications, investment and relationships with external partners can acquire strategic significance in Washington alongside their economic importance at home. Understanding that perspective is essential to effective engagement. Caribbean countries also have legitimate development needs, international obligations and sovereign responsibilities.

A durable relationship between the US and CARICOM countries should allow for meaningful discussion of the interests of both sides.

Where interests meet

There is substantial common ground, supported by tangible economic benefits, for such discussions.

The United States is a major trading partner and an important source of investment and visitors for Caribbean countries. At the same time, CARICOM countries collectively provide a valuable market for American exports, generating a US goods trade surplus of approximately USD 7 billion in 2025. That commerce supports American businesses and employment.

CARICOM’s value extends beyond its purchases. Its oil and gas industries, bauxite and other mineral resources make the region a nearby partner in supply chains important to American industry and energy security. Guyana’s oil production and the longstanding energy and mineral industries of Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica illustrate that contribution. These connections give practical substance to a mutually beneficial relationship.

Predictability matters. US tariffs on Caribbean exports are affecting their competitiveness in the American market. Separately, changes in American export prices, shipping costs and supply chains are increasing Caribbean import bills. For small economies, disruption affecting one industry can have consequences for national employment, revenue and foreign-exchange earnings.

Arrangements that sustain Caribbean economic activity also preserve opportunities for American commerce.

Security provides another area of shared interest. Drug trafficking, illegal firearms, organised crime, illicit financial flows and maritime insecurity damage Caribbean societies and threaten the United States. Cooperation among police, customs authorities, coastguards and judicial institutions is indispensable. Its effectiveness depends on attention to the movement of weapons and criminal proceeds alongside narcotics.

Security also rests on functioning institutions, economic opportunity and public confidence in the rule of law. Enforcement and development reinforce each other.

Haiti demonstrates the consequences when insecurity overwhelms institutions. Its people bear the greatest suffering, while neighbouring countries face humanitarian and security pressures.

A durable response requires resources, accountability, stronger Haitian institutions and meaningful Haitian participation. Continuity of international support remains important whatever the composition of Congress.

Developments affecting Cuba also have implications for neighbouring countries through migration, economic connections and humanitarian needs. Those consequences remain relevant to any assessment of regional stability.

Resilience and human connections

Development financing is equally consequential. Income per capita alone does not capture a small country’s exposure to disasters or the burden of rebuilding. A hurricane can destroy infrastructure accumulated over decades, leaving a country classified as middle- or high-income facing severe financial distress. Necessary borrowing to pay for rebuilding has deepened existing vulnerability.

The Caribbean’s longstanding case for assessing vulnerability alongside income has practical relevance to the United States, which has considerable influence in international financial institutions. Resilient economies are better able to sustain trade, protect investment and recover without repeated emergency assistance. Disaster preparedness and resilient infrastructure consequently offer a basis for cooperation grounded in economic stability and measurable benefits.

Families, students, workers, businesses and Caribbean communities in the United States also sustain connections that reach far beyond government. Individual visa eligibility is a matter for the US authorities under American law. However, broad restrictions on visa issuance based on nationality, including those affecting Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica, have consequences beyond individual applicants. They impede business travel, tourism to the United States, attendance by fee-paying students at American universities and access to paid medical care at American hospitals.

These effects carry costs for American institutions and businesses as well as Caribbean citizens, and can strain cooperative relations. Predictable arrangements that address legitimate security concerns while sustaining these connections serve both sides.

An enduring relationship

The new Congress creates possibilities for dialogue and scrutiny, but it does not guarantee agreement on Caribbean concerns, nor replace the present administration as an essential partner.

Some of the priorities of the US administration command support across party lines. Others remain contested. The value of Caribbean engagement lies in continuing to explain our circumstances clearly and identifying workable propositions for agreement.

Our relationships with American businesses, universities and communities add depth to that effort. They demonstrate that Caribbean prosperity and security have tangible connections to American well-being.

The balance in Washington has changed. However, the geography, economic connections and human relationships binding the United States and the Caribbean endure.

Those realities provide a foundation for constructive relations with president Trump’s administration and both parties in Congress, sustained by mutual respect, candid dialogue and recognition that our interests frequently meet.