AP Voter Poll Shows Young And Black Voters Moving Toward Democrats

Young and Black voters moved sharply toward Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms, reversing much of the Republican Party’s 2024 progress with two groups central to the country’s political future.

The AP Voter Poll found about 7 in 10 voters under 30 backed the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race. About 3 in 10 supported the Republican. That was a clear break from 2024, when the youngest voters were roughly divided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

The change was strong, but the size of the group matters. Voters under 30 made up only about 1 in 10 voters nationally. About half said they were “angry” about the country’s direction, compared with roughly one-third of voters 65 and older. About 6 in 10 said opposition to Trump was one reason for their House vote.

Black voters also moved back toward Democrats after Trump made inroads in 2024. About 9 in 10 Black voters supported the Democratic House candidate, up from roughly 8 in 10 who backed Harris two years earlier. Only about 1 in 10 Black men supported a Republican House candidate nationally, compared with roughly one-quarter who voted for Trump in 2024.

The shift showed up in major state races. About 9 in 10 Black men voted for Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, where the Democrat became the first Black woman elected governor in the United States. About three-quarters of Black men in the state supported Harris in 2024. Roughly 9 in 10 Black women backed Bottoms, nearly matching their support for Harris.

Hispanic voters moved in the same direction. About 6 in 10 supported Democratic House candidates nationally while roughly one-third backed Republicans. In Texas, about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters supported Democrat James Talarico in his winning Senate race, compared with about 3 in 10 for Republican Ken Paxton.

Economic pressure cut across those shifts. More than half of voters from households earning less than $50,000 in 2025 backed Democratic House candidates after that income group split about evenly between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 6 in 10 lower-income voters called the cost of living “crucial” to their decision. Most voters also said inflation had caused their families at least “moderate” hardship during the previous year.

The survey covered more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states and carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample. SSRS conducted it for the AP and six media partners from October 19 through November 3 in Alaska and October 22 through November 3 elsewhere.

AP’s explanation of how the survey works says it combines mail, phone, online and in-person interviews. The process includes “registered voters verified to have cast a ballot” and blends several interview methods with the actual vote count. AP also cautions that the survey does not call races by itself.

The results put numbers behind months of organizing aimed at the same voters. Before Election Day, the nonpartisan Hip Hop Caucus focused its Respect My Vote campaign on Gen Z and Millennials. Its president and CEO, Rev. Lennox Yearwood Jr., told The Washington Informer, “What I want this generation to understand is that this is your fight more than ever.” The AP survey does not measure the effect of that campaign or any other turnout effort.