Guyana Record Oil Profit Share Could Be Temporary – Here’s Why
Originally published by News Americas Now Read the original
By News Americas Now Business Editor
News Americas Now, GEORGETOWN, Guyana, Thurs. Oct. 15, 2026: Guyana collected close to US$1 billion in oil revenue in September for the second straight month, but the country’s newly elevated profit share from the Stabroek Block carries a built-in vulnerability that could erase those gains if the government isn’t careful about how it approves ExxonMobil’s next projects.
The Natural Resource Fund took in US$768 million in profit oil in September, following a US$778 million collection in August that included a signing-bonus payment. Guyana is now capturing 39.8% of Stabroek Block profits plus a 2% royalty – a dramatic rise from the 12.5% profit share the country held for years under its original 2016 Production Sharing Agreement, which allowed ExxonMobil to recover 75% of monthly production before any profit-sharing began. That cost-recovery phase ended because Exxon has now repaid its full US$55 billion investment in Guyana’s offshore fields.
THE MATH
But the math that got Guyana to 39.8% can run in reverse. ExxonMobil is currently pursuing an eighth and ninth development project in the Stabroek Block. Each new project adds fresh costs to the cost-recovery bank — and if the government approves them under the existing financial terms, Guyana’s profit share could slide back toward the original 12.5%, effectively giving away the gains the country has only just started collecting.
President Irfaan Ali has said the government will seek expert advice on how future Exxon projects are financed, including whether Guyana should take a direct investment stake in upcoming developments to lock in a larger, durable share of returns rather than relying on the current cost-recovery structure. How that question gets answered – not this month’s deposit figure – will determine whether Guyana’s current oil windfall is the new normal or a high-water mark.
Four projects are currently producing roughly 900,000 barrels per day in the Stabroek Block. A fifth, Uaru, is expected to push the country past one million barrels per day before the end of 2026.
