IMF upgrades 2026 growth forecast, but warns of ‘split’ outlook

BANGKOK, Thailand (AFP) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday forecast that global growth in 2026 would slow less than previously expected due to advanced economies’ “resilience” in the face of war-fuelled energy prices, but warned that low-income countries remained vulnerable to the supply shock. In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) released at the organisation’s annual meetings in Bangkok, the fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 per cent, compared to 3.5 per cent growth in 2025. The IMF warned that while many advanced economies have been buoyed by rising investment in artificial intelligence (AI) technology, poorer countries that are not benefiting from that boom face stark choices as they deal with high energy prices due to the US war on Iran. “The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks to growth tilted to the downside,” said Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s chief economist. The United States’ war on Iran, launched in February, has plunged the Middle East into violence and seen global energy prices skyrocket as a result of Tehran’s retaliatory actions.