Is Jamaica experiencing democratic backsliding? What the evidence says

KINGSTON, Jamaica – Around the world, democracy is under pressure. The V-Dem Institute’s Democracy Report 2026 says nearly a quarter of the world’s countries are experiencing democratic backsliding, or autocratization, including influential democracies such as the United States, United Kingdom and Italy.

But is Jamaica among them?

Democratic backsliding is the gradual erosion of the institutions, norms and civil liberties that sustain an existing democracy. Unlike the military coups of an earlier era, it can occur under elected governments and through apparently legal actions that gradually weaken checks and balances.

There is little disagreement that Jamaica remains a democracy. The disagreement is over whether it is beginning to slide backwards.

Professor Trevor Munroe, political scientist and Professor Emeritus at The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona, believes it is. Political pollster Dr. Don Anderson, Executive Chairman of Market Research Services Limited (MRSL), believes it is not. A Jamaican social policy researcher, who requested anonymity, also sees evidence of backsliding, while a Jamaican academic with expertise in democratic governance, who also requested anonymity, describes the situation more cautiously as “democratic stress.”

 Strong elections, weak confidence

One of Jamaica’s greatest democratic strengths remains its electoral system. CARICOM observers assessed the 2025 general election as free, fair and peaceful, with voters able to participate without intimidation or fear.

Yet beneath that achievement lies a troubling contradiction. Turnout was approximately 39.5 per cent. According to the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), only 28 per cent of Jamaicans trusted elections in 2023 and just 17 per cent believed votes were always counted correctly and fairly.

Anderson sees declining participation—not democratic backsliding—as a major danger. He contrasted turnout of about 87 per cent in 1980 with roughly 39 per cent in 2025.

For Anderson, the institutions protecting Jamaican democracy remain sufficiently resilient. He points particularly to the independence of the judiciary and argues that the Integrity Commission, despite challenges, continues to hold its own.

The anonymous academic reaches a similar conclusion, although with greater caution.

Jamaica, the academic argues, continues to have competitive elections, an active opposition, functioning judiciary, independent media, vocal civil society and regular public criticism of government. Freedom House scores Jamaica 81 out of 100 and classifies it as “Free”, while the 2025 World Justice Project Rule of Law Index ranked Jamaica 57th of 143 countries.

But those strengths should not invite complacency.

Only 53 per cent of Jamaicans supported democracy in 2023, according to data cited by the academic; 28 per cent were satisfied with the way democracy worked and 24 per cent said they could tolerate a prime minister closing Parliament during difficult times. Half said a military takeover could be justified under conditions of high corruption.

The academic’s verdict is striking: Jamaica is a resilient democracy operating with a “thinning reservoir of public trust.”

What happens between elections?

For Munroe, focusing primarily on elections misses where the warning signs are strongest.

He argues that accountability, transparency and citizen participation are particularly important measures of Jamaica’s democratic health. Free and fair elections may be well established, he says, but democracy must also be judged by what happens between elections.

Munroe points to reduced parliamentary oversight, changes in the practice of opposition members chairing sessional committees, delays involving joint select committees, weakening of the tradition of ministerial accountability, and what he considers less meaningful public consultation.

He contrasts current practices with the extensive consultations that helped produce Vision 2030 and the constitutional reform process culminating in the 2011 Charter of Fundamental Rights and Freedoms. For Munroe, the more recent constitutional reform process represents a step backwards in meaningful consultation. His conclusion is unequivocal: the evidence of backsliding is strong, although how far it has progressed remains debatable.

The social policy researcher is similarly concerned, particularly about the space available to civil society.

She argues that citizen participation after elections is an essential part of democracy and distinguishes meaningful consultation from processes in which citizens are essentially presented with decisions already made. She also sees attempts to weaken oversight institutions as particularly troubling.

In her assessment, legislative attempts affecting bodies such as the Integrity Commission and The Independent Commission of Investigations (INDECOM), concerns about transparency in political financing and vote buying, and pressure on civil society cumulatively erode democratic norms.

Yet even those who see backsliding acknowledge Jamaica’s institutional defences.

Munroe identifies the judiciary, Auditor General and media among the country’s resilient institutions. The researcher describes the judiciary as Jamaica’s strongest check, pointing to the courts’ willingness to strike down provisions of the original National Identification System legislation that conflicted with constitutional rights.

A democracy worth watching

So, is Jamaica experiencing democratic backsliding?

The evidence does not produce a unanimous answer.

Jamaica still possesses many of the fundamentals of a functioning democracy: competitive elections, an independent judiciary, active media and civil society, and institutions capable of challenging executive action. But low electoral participation, declining public trust, concerns about parliamentary oversight, political accountability, transparency and meaningful citizen consultation cannot simply be dismissed.

Perhaps the most important lesson is that democratic backsliding does not arrive announcing itself.

Munroe observes that individual departures from established democratic practice are often explained as necessary for efficiency or urgency. Viewed separately, each may appear reasonable; viewed together, they may reveal a direction of travel.

Whether Jamaica has already crossed the line from democratic stress into democratic backsliding remains contested. What the evidence makes much harder to contest is the need to protect the institutions, norms and public trust that have sustained Jamaican democracy.

Democracy is not secured only on election day. It is also protected in everything that happens between elections.

 

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