Israel opposition holds narrow edge over Netanyahu in first projections

JERUSALEM, Undefined (AFP)—Israeli voters on Tuesday gave a narrow edge to opposition parties over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, initial projections showed, after decades-high turnout in the country's first election since the trauma of the October 7, 2023 attacks. Netanyahu, Israel's longest serving prime minister, had run on promises to fight enemies from Hamas to Iran and had spent election day raising fears of Israeli Arab voters who came out in historic numbers against his hard-right government. Early projections broadcast by Israeli television networks showed that no party would take an absolute majority but that the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a centre-right former military chief, enjoyed a small advantage. "The initial exit poll results indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government," Eisenkot said after polling stations closed. Yair Lapid, a centrist former prime minister allied with Eisenkot, described the result as a "crushing defeat" for Netanyahu. At Eisenkot's watch party in a Tel Aviv sports arena, cheering supporters described the 66-year-old as the next prime minister and chanted, using Netanyahu's nickname, "Bibi, go home!" But Gideon Saar, Israel's foreign minister and Netanyahu ally, said that victory declarations by the opposition were "premature". A new government may not take shape for weeks as Israeli politicians look to cobble together a government that can reach the magic number of 61 seats in the 120-member parliament. The three mainstream networks -- Channels 11, 12 and 13 -- projected the opposition bloc to win 52 to 53 seats, and Netanyahu's bloc to win 50, although his Likud would be the largest single party in the parliament, with 24 or 25 seats. Israeli Arab lists were projected to win 17 to 18 seats, a sharp gain, potentially giving them a kingmaker role although Eisenkot has been coy on whether he would ally with them. Political expert Tal Elovitz said that Netanyahu's coalition had clearly lost ground and that Arab lawmakers gained. "It appears there is a possibility of forming a minority government headed by Eisenkot, but this could still shift depending on the final results," he said. - Campaigning against Arab parties - In a dash to secure as many votes as possible, Netanyahu had charged that Israeli Arabs were out to "steal the election" and his Likud party unsuccessfully asked election authorities to keep polls open past 10:00 pm. His efforts led the opposition to charge that he was looking for pretexts to challenge the results. Israelis cast their ballots in the shadow of October 7 and the multi-front regional wars that it sparked, with the trauma from the attack still fresh and questions over accountability and security central to the campaign. The vote came as Israel looks increasingly isolated on the world stage, driven by the war in Iran and the military campaign in Gaza, soaring settlement construction and violence in the occupied West Bank. Netanyahu himself faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over Gaza as well as domestic corruption charges that could land him in prison. Eisenkot, his main rival, is a political novice and former military chief whose mild manner is seen as the antithesis of the incumbent. The son of working-class Moroccan Jewish immigrants, Eisenkot would be the first prime minister of Middle Eastern or North African descent. Before voting, the 66-year-old Eisenkot paid his respects privately at the grave of his son Gal, whose death fighting in Gaza has drawn empathy from many Israelis. Speaking afterwards at a polling station, Eisenkot called on Israelis to vote to replace "the worst government since the state was established". - Mass turnout - Nationwide turnout as of 8:00 pm stood at nearly 75 percent, the highest in decades. Some 7.3 million people were eligible to vote, with tens of thousands of Israelis estimated to have flown in from abroad for an election seen as crucial to deciding the future character of their country. Eilana Zisblit, 55, told AFP she had travelled back from Canada, where she has lived for almost 30 years, to vote for a centre-right party in Eisenkot's bloc. "The country is going in a really, really bad direction. Both for Jews and Arabs living in the country, and for Jews living abroad," she said. The time to act is "now, or the country really won't survive anymore". Netanyahu, 77, who has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years, has been quick to allege electoral fraud. He said Tuesday that three senior officials of the United Arab List had been arrested with envelopes full of cash in the south. The acting director general of the Central Elections Committee, Dean Livne, said that police had "caught individuals who tried to bribe voters", adding that the unidentified suspects were not at polling stations and were caught near their homes. He said the matter was a localised case and under investigation. United Arab List head Mansour Abbas, who could emerge as a kingmaker in a close election, accused Netanyahu of "lying and inciting" to mobilise his voters. Netanyahu last returned to power in December 2022, bringing into his coalition far-right ultra-nationalists who have aggressively championed settlements in the West Bank. In the last days of the campaign, he posted an image of a nuclear bomb destroying Tel Aviv and talked up his endorsement by US President Donald Trump, who is also fond of alleging election fraud.