Lil Baby’s FRESH Forecast Low Sales But #1 Is Still Possible

Lil Baby‘s FRESH has an early chart forecast of 60,000-plus for its first week, giving the rapper a shot at No. 1, though the numbers are well below his last release, WHAM.

FRESH, which came out November 6, still has some time, since the first U.S. tracking week ends November 12, so the full-week count is still to come.

WHAM set a much higher bar last year. It entered the Billboard 200 at No. 1 with 140,000 units from sales and streams. That was its full count for the week ending January 9, 2025. It drew 50,000 from album sales and 90,000 from streams.

The mix of sales and streams is key to reading those totals.

A chart unit can come from an album sale, song sales or streams. Pure sales count copies of the full album bought. Those sales make up just one part of the Billboard 200 count.

WHAM‘s sales push took several forms. Fans could buy it on CD or download it. A version with four extra songs went on sale at his label’s webstore during week one. Fans had to wait until week two to stream those tracks. Both downloads cost $4.99 at the artist and label stores and on iTunes.

His 2022 album It’s Only Me reached No. 1 with an even larger first week of 216,000 units, driven mostly by streams. WHAM then drew a much larger share of its first-week count from full-album sales.

For FRESH, fans had more ways to buy the music before launch. Signed vinyl, CDs and two merch fan packs were offered for pre-order. The digital album has 17 songs. Its release also brought a new video for “Mr. Do Something.”

The album had a hit to build on. “Dead Fresh” first played at a Louis Vuitton show in Paris in June. It later peaked at No. 18 on the Hot 100. The song also reached No. 1 at Urban and Rhythmic radio.

The post didn’t split sales from streams. Its forecast leaves room for FRESH to grow before the week closes and the final chart takes shape.