OAS General Secretariat calls for anticipating El Niño Impacts in 2027 in the Americas
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WASHINGTON, USA – Rainfall reductions of up to 80 percent and torrential precipitation leading to severe flooding and landslides are the expected consequences across different areas of Latin America and the Caribbean from the impact of the El Niño phenomenon in 2027, according to a report co-authored by the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS), which urges Member States to strengthen prevention and preparedness during the final months of 2026.
The technical brief, titled “El Niño 2026–2027: Outlook, Potential Impacts, and Anticipatory Action,” prepared by the OAS Department of Sustainable Development (DSD) in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN), warns that the phenomenon could reach a “very strong” intensity, with cross-cutting impacts on water, energy, and food security, as well as public health.
The Central American Dry Corridor, the insular Caribbean, the Andean and Caribbean regions of Colombia, Venezuela, and the Amazon Basin could face severe rainfall drops and intense droughts. In contrast, coastal Ecuador, northern Peru, central-southern Chile, and the La Plata Basin—which spans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—are projected to see surplus precipitation, with high risks of flooding and landslides.
In the insular Caribbean and coastal regions, acute rainfall deficits are projected to trigger marine intrusion into aquifers, contaminating freshwater supplies and prompting urban rationing. Drought conditions will also compromise overall water supply and hydroelectric generation, affecting essential services in a region where more than 200 million people lack continuous water service and approximately 50 percent of the electricity matrix relies on hydropower.
Regarding food security, rainfall scarcity in the Dry Corridor is projected to push between 500,000 and 750,000 people into Phase 3 (Acute Crisis) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
Impacts will extend to global trade and transport: anticipated drops in Lakes Gatún and Alhajuela are expected to restrict the operating draught of Neopanamax vessels transiting the Panama Canal to 14 meters (44 feet). In public health, high temperatures combined with unprotected household water storage during rationing could accelerate the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, vector of dengue. Dry conditions will also increase the risk of wildfires.
“El Niño cannot be avoided, but a large part of its consequences can,” warned Andrés Sánchez, Head of the Water Section at the OAS. “In addition to drawing attention to the very strong impact that the scientific community warns El Niño will have in 2027, this document seeks to call on countries to prepare in order to minimise those consequences, providing them with a guiding framework on how to do so.”
To mitigate these risks, the roadmap urges governments to strengthen early warning systems, plan alternative electricity supply sources, mobilise contingent funds, distribute drought-resistant seeds, and reinforce health surveillance and vector control. For island and hyper-arid territories, recommendations include prioritising backup desalination technology, reducing technical water losses in distribution networks, inspecting alternative groundwater sources, and monitoring aquifer recharge. The document highlights that adopting these measures during the fourth quarter of 2026 will reduce the human and economic costs of an emergency in 2027.
The report further stresses the critical role of regional cooperation to protect shared river basins and electrical interconnections, such as the La Plata Basin and the Electrical Interconnection System for Central America (SIEPAC). Coordination among countries and timely information sharing will be fundamental to anticipating impacts and building the hemisphere’s response capacity.
The technical brief was compiled using data and information from the WMO, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), CIIFEN, the Latin American and Caribbean Energy Organization (OLACDE), FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network), PAHO/WHO (Pan American Health Organization/ World Health Organization), the International Labour Organization (ILO), and national meteorological and hydrological services.
