S&P Global affirms Jamaica’s credit rating

KINGSTON, Jamaica — S&P Global Ratings affirmed Jamaica's 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on Monday even as the fallout from Hurricane Melissa temporarily pushes debt higher and weighs on economic growth. The international ratings agency expects the economy to contract 1.1 per cent in 2026 as Jamaica continues to recover from extensive damage to infrastructure, agriculture and tourism, particularly across western and southern sections of the island. That view sits against a backdrop of an agriculture sector already strained by El Niño-driven drought and the hurricane's lingering fallout. Tourism has seen tourist passenger arrivals down 20 per cent in the first half of 2026, with 28 per cent of hotel operators still shuttered for renovation at the end of July. "Consequently, we expect the economy to rebound in 2027 and 2028, supported in part by major rebuilding and post-Melissa reconstruction centralised through the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority," S&P added while maintaining a stable outlook on the country. S&P expects Jamaica’s record of prudent fiscal management to remain intact, with fiscal deficits eventually falling below one per cent of GDP and primary surpluses climbing above four per cent of GDP by the end of the agency’s forecast period. Although Jamaica has built a robust disaster risk policy framework to respond to climate-related disasters, external shocks continue to remain a key risk for Jamaica. This is on top of various factors which constrain the economy like high security costs, low productivity and low business competitiveness. "The economic contraction caused by Hurricane Melissa is the latest of a series of external shocks that have hit the Jamaican economy. These have led to anemic average growth over the past few decades. We believe these events will continue to hamper growth," S&P explained. Fitch Ratings assigned a BB- credit rating to the Government of Jamaica's recent US$1 billion bond. That rating is the same as Jamaica's current sovereign credit rating. Moody's last upgraded Jamaica to a Ba3 rating in December 2025.