Strong El Niño expected to intensify, increasing risks of extreme weather into 2027

GENEVA, Switzerland (WMO) — A powerful El Niño event is firmly underway and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, potentially reaching very strong intensity before the end of the year. In a new update on Thursday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that the phenomenon could significantly disrupt global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat events through 2027. According to forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres, there is an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 per cent” that El Niño will continue through February 2027. Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the event as a major warning sign for the planet. “El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” Guterres said. Meanwhile, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the strengthening El Niño could have widespread consequences for communities and economies around the world. “El Niño in Spanish means boy child — but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” she said. She said the scale of the event requires an unprecedented level of preparation and coordination. “Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she continued. “WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” Saulo added. “We have no time to lose.” WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are considered among the most authoritative global sources of seasonal climate information. They combine forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres with expert assessments from national meteorological agencies and climate prediction institutions around the world.